Uncertainty,Toulmin and Modelling

A model is a simplified notion or representation of reality. This makes it very important.

Consider the concept of flight

Now consider these:

  

 

If you had to explain flight to someone who had no idea of the concept you might use a paper plane, a model plane, a diagram or show them an airliner or a bird. These would all then be models of varying complexity and accuracy for the same idea.  The concept of flight as we might naturally see it, in birds for example, is such a complex one that we cannot understand it straight away.  In order to understand it we try to emulate it. However it is far too complex to 'copy' exactly and this is why we need simplified models.

Basically, what I understand as the reason modeling is indispensably important is because:

a)      Nothing in this world is perfect or ideal

b)     Many things are immeasurably complex

As a result of this, we find that uncertainty is everywhere. In my previous blog I started with the premise that to be an engineer is to be a problem solver. This applies itself to the concept of modeling very well.

What is a problem?

In my opinion it is anything which hinders the achievement of an objective.

Now if we cannot exactly determine this ‘thing’, what it is or how it operates because of the above mentioned uncertainty, then how do we solve the problem and achieve the objective?

Interestingly enough, this is a problem in its own right.

The answer I am getting to is modeling, but to demonstrate I will use Toulmin’s model to argue this.

Toulmin's model on Prezi

Toulmin’s model for argumentation gives us a less complex, easier to understand view of what makes a convincing argument and in so doing helps to breakdown why something happens the way it does. This in turn makes it a very useful tool to solve problems through modeling.

As engineers, to deal with and solve problems we must embrace paradox and uncertainty. Modeling lets us do this by helping us to understand problems and lets us see details that we otherwise might not be able to see. It enables us to link things that may otherwise seem unrelated by providing a systematic, structured process for problem solving (this is how we can apply math to a problem; because of structure it follows certain rules). By simplifying a problem and looking only at its core components through modeling, we can ask "what would happen if?". Modeling in many cases is also easier and cheaper to do than emulating actual phenomena (if it can be done at all). In essence modeling turns a problem we do not understand into a simpler one we do understand so that we as engineers can solve problems better.